This is the least interesting question one can ask with respect to religion, a kind of quizzical atheist version of "tell me of this emotion you call...love". To dispense with the question, I don't see why the answer cannot be both--that it developed as a side effect of higher cognitive functions, which religious "instinct" then evolved over time in ways that promoted the spread and scale of human society to global dominance (I suppose some would say this is merely taking the adaptive side by way of roundabout). But it hardly matters, as it is one of those useless questions which never can be answered in the scientific sense, only pondered.
A more interesting and pressing question is, what will society look like without religion? That is the course that Western civilization is on. I think we are beginning to see atheism's first notable cultural form, in the shape of contemporary missionary atheism--that is to say the promotion of atheism as a necessary advancement from a state of religious belief, and atheistic logic-based morality as an advancement from religious morality and tradition.
As religion evolved from tribal paganism to tribal monotheism (Judaism) to universal monotheism (Christianity, Islam), it developed the important concept of the moral life; I say "developed" and not "invented", because while philosophers grappled with ideas of virtue and goodness, religion gave them a super-motivating character in the form of one's personal relation to divinity--the moral life thereby becomes an end in itself, not merely the facilitator of communal harmony or trade or protection from the strong or any other practical benefit of religious practice. (Perhaps this clarifies what I mean in arguing that religion is both accidental and adaptive.)
Religion did not create morality, nor the opposite, but religion has changed in response to the moral needs of civilization to become entirely caught up in the question of morality. It makes as much sense to continue to discuss religion as a means to explain the unknown as it does to regard barbers as experts in dentistry. Here we come to the problem: it is not clear that a morality sufficient to sustain our large civilization can develop without the presence of a dominant religion to protect it from corruption or atrophy.
Missionary atheists will have none of this, of course, as it directly opposes their enterprise. There is no sense in attacking religion if it is a necessary ingredient for civilization, therefore to be a missionary atheist is to deny religion its special relationship to morality (there is even an element of this denial in the facile belief that religion is necessary to keep "stupid people" in line--another way of saying that smart people can live well without it, but this seems not to be true). When Razib Khan recently reviewed The Faith Instinct, his comments were quickly filled with the extremely stupid retorts of missionary atheists (who all seem rather broken):
Simon Gardner:
J-Dog:
Tsutsugamushi:
There is some improvement following these wondrously dumb examples of nerd atheism, however the discussion remained along the lines of a sociopath marveling at people who experience emotional bonds with each other--how very suboptimal. (I am always entertained when nerds discuss suboptimal behavior--and then resume emotionally shallow, technology-oriented lives that involve a very suboptimal use of personal resources and a tendency to depression and beta male abstinence.)
The trouble with atheists is that atheism has not to date produced a fully formed and robust morality, and at times appears to aspire more to an anti-morality or laissez-faire philosophy (missionary atheists are often hostile to traditional moral values). This is in part the clever silly problem--the tendency of the high IQ to regard themselves as better judges of complex moral issues than the collective judgement of hundreds of years of socialization. It is also a problem specific to any attempt to found a morality on logic when the necessary data to form resilient logical rules is, for all practical purposes, impossible to collect.
The use of custom in tradition is imperfect, but it has the benefit of being cognitively efficient--that is, it is able to compress via custom the experiences of a great many people, so that it does not require too much mental energy to promulgate. Logic-based morality, on the other hand, must not only acquire an immense quantity of data regarding human experience systematically (and absent significant collection error), it must also somehow impartially sift through this data and synthesize a set of rules that can be applied to a class- and IQ-diverse (and possibly ethnically-diverse) society, as well as ensure that its rules will be accepted by society. This latter point is crucial; a perfectly logical morality is compromised if it is rejected by the people it was designed for--people with emotional responses and personal and group loyalties.
If a robust logic-based morality is impossible, where will it most likely break down? I believe in three areas. First, the indulgence of self-gratification, and through this a weakened resistance to future impulses. Logic-based morality, with its self-conceit as a scientific endeavor, is slow to find reasons why instances of personal gratification are in themselves harmful, especially when harm is the product of successive behavior. Hedonism and deviant sexuality are examples of self-gratification that logic-based morality is less willing to condemn, despite the social costs of permissiveness.
Second, logic-based morality will tend to be the product of a narrow spectrum of class, intelligence, and experience, and therefore the farther one gets from this spectrum, the more resistance its morality is likely to encounter. Moreover, it will tend to produce unintended consequences when applied far outside this spectrum due to second order effects and a failure to account for the diversity of social interactions beyond its common experience. (Thus from the sexual revolution of white bourgeois youth proceeded the collapse of the black family unit.)
Third, a preference for novelty, the clever silly problem, will make it prone to undermine social stability while pursuing short-term advantages and unproven theories. To take an example from the financial sector, it was the "logic" that homeowners were better citizens that resulted in a policy of reckless lending practices, as if lowering the financial requirements would automatically embue new homeowners with the traits that higher requirements selected for. (In fact the reverse seems to have happened.) Contemporary morality, already infected with logical pretensions, had little to say about such fundamentally unproductive activity.
To date logic-based morality has been protected by the fact that atheists are a minority--enough other people subscribe to a robust morality derived from religion and tradition that atheists, as free riders, are able to enjoy the fruits of a society unified by a religion-derived moral outlook. As religion continues to decline (assuming traditional forces do not reassert themselves), one should expect greater instability and greater division. I expect atheists to follow through on human nature and blind themselves to both developments while continuing to seethe about minor political figures and remnant religious institutions.

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